Rocket Bomber - article - manga - rankings analysis - Breakout: One Piece

Oooo… a comment! Comments are [almost] always rewarded.

soysauce commented on the recent rankings :

“I was expecting one piece to be in the top 5 at least.”

##

Going back six weeks, we can see One Piece doing quite well:

[series ranking]
20 June 4. ↔0 (4) : One Piece – Viz Shonen Jump [607.9] ::
27 June 4. ↔0 (4) : One Piece – Viz Shonen Jump [568.9] ::
4 July 8. ↓-4 (4) : One Piece – Viz Shonen Jump [459.6] ::
11 July 8. ↔0 (8) : One Piece – Viz Shonen Jump [484.7] ::
18 July 7. ↑1 (8) : One Piece – Viz Shonen Jump [503.9] ::
25 July 12. ↓-5 (7) : One Piece – Viz Shonen Jump [415.9] ::

What explains the drop? Well, there is the way the series score is calculated, first:

Previously when figuring out the top 50 series I took the top ranked volume of a given series as a base, then added one tenth of the scores for all remaining volumes in the series. The thinking behind that method was to account for a popular series like Naruto (with 33 ranked books) without creating an unsurmountable barrier to other series that might have one or two equally highly ranked volumes — but only 4-5 volumes total

The trouble with this method is that a highly ranked one-shot (that not-quite-manga vampire/lycanthrope/romance abomination Dark Hunger, for example) is going to beat any number of other, perhaps more qualified series because of its high score and a quirk of the math.

The fix in place this week is to use the combined score of the top two books in a series as the base series score (and then add 1/10 of the rest, as before) which doesn’t change anything really when comparing series (as long as they have at least two books in them) but automatically puts any one-shot or single volume at a disadvantage.

This is, in my opinion, a good thing. And since it’s my chart, that’s what we’re going to see from now on.

[that’s from 2 years ago, and I haven’t changed the formula since.]

So performance of individual volumes can make a big difference, and even with 50+ volumes ranking (though some are way down the list) the primary factor is the relative ranking of the top 2 volumes.

It’s not a complete picture, but let me go through the spreadsheet and break out the rankings of select One Piece books to give you an idea of where it was, where it is, and where the series is going.

Obviously, there is Viz’s speed-up, 5 volumes a month over six months, starting in January [with a new story arc] with volume 24; the last batch (49-53) landed on 1 June. There is the new volume (54) which released 6 July — and also the (rather nice) 3-volume value omnibuses that collected volumes 1-12. Sales of these have been more modest, but still solidly in the midlist; let’s look at not just the first of those, but also volume 13, which will give us an idea of how many folks are ‘graduating’ from the cheap intro to the series into collecting single volumes.

The Blitz:

20 June
24. ↑1 (25) : One Piece 51 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jun 2010 [215.1] ::
25. ↓-1 (24) : One Piece 53 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jun 2010 [214.4] ::
28. ↑7 (35) : One Piece 50 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jun 2010 [199.4] ::
36. ↑4 (40) : One Piece 52 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jun 2010 [186.2] ::
38. ↑6 (44) : One Piece 49 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jun 2010 [183.8] ::

27 June
21. ↑4 (25) : One Piece 53 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jun 2010 [213.3] ::
30. ↓-6 (24) : One Piece 51 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jun 2010 [199.2] ::
35. ↓-7 (28) : One Piece 50 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jun 2010 [182.3] ::
45. ↓-7 (38) : One Piece 49 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jun 2010 [162.9] ::
46. ↓-10 (36) : One Piece 52 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jun 2010 [162.6] ::

4 July
43. ↓-22 (21) : One Piece 53 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jun 2010 [163.1] ::
48. ↓-13 (35) : One Piece 50 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jun 2010 [158.4] ::
57. ↓-12 (45) : One Piece 49 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jun 2010 [146.3] ::
62. ↓-32 (30) : One Piece 51 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jun 2010 [141.5] ::
69. ↓-23 (46) : One Piece 52 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jun 2010 [136.7] ::

11 July
80. ↓-32 (48) : One Piece 50 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jun 2010 [125.5] ::
96. ↓-53 (43) : One Piece 53 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jun 2010 [113.4] ::
115. ↓-53 (62) : One Piece 51 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jun 2010 [103.9] ::
119. ↓-62 (57) : One Piece 49 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jun 2010 [101.8] ::
124. ↓-55 (69) : One Piece 52 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jun 2010 [99.8] ::

18 July
142. ↓-46 (96) : One Piece 53 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jun 2010 [87.4] ::
158. ↓-78 (80) : One Piece 50 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jun 2010 [81.6] ::
182. ↓-58 (124) : One Piece 52 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jun 2010 [73.0] ::
183. ↓-68 (115) : One Piece 51 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jun 2010 [73.0] ::
299. ↓-180 (119) : One Piece 49 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jun 2010 [39.8] ::

25 July
144. ↓-2 (142) : One Piece 53 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jun 2010 [77.5] ::
185. ↓-3 (182) : One Piece 52 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jun 2010 [58.7] ::
194. ↓-11 (183) : One Piece 51 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jun 2010 [56.6] ::
219. ↓-61 (158) : One Piece 50 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jun 2010 [49.9] ::
456. ↓-157 (299) : One Piece 49 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jun 2010 [16.0] ::

Strong sales throughout June softened over the course of July; and I think we can see why I use the arrows [assuming your browser is displaying the characters correctly] plus the number of ranks gained-or-lost each week. When I do a pull like this of a single series, or volume, its a handy easily-read visual cue.

The Latest:

20 June [One Piece 54 not yet ranked]
27 June 639. ↑new (0) : One Piece 54 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jul 2010 [8.8] ::
4 July 161. ↑478 (639) : One Piece 54 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jul 2010 [77.8] ::
11 July 18. ↑143 (161) : One Piece 54 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jul 2010 [226.5] ::
18 July 9. ↑9 (18) : One Piece 54 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jul 2010 [300.9] ::
25 July 12. ↓-3 (9) : One Piece 54 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jul 2010 [251.6] ::

Reminder: the official street date for 54 was Tuesday, 6 July. So, not much pre-ordering going on but as soon as it actually hit shelves we were lining up to buy: it went from #161 into the top 20, and will likely still be a top 25 title for another couple of weeks.

Starting Points:

20 June 357. ↑4 (361) : One Piece 1 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jun 2003 [31.2] ::
27 June 290. ↑67 (357) : One Piece 1 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jun 2003 [42.2] ::
4 July 263. ↑27 (290) : One Piece 1 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jun 2003 [49.0] ::
11 July 298. ↓-35 (263) : One Piece 1 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jun 2003 [42.6] ::
18 July 249. ↑49 (298) : One Piece 1 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jun 2003 [51.4] ::
25 July 191. ↑58 (249) : One Piece 1 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jun 2003 [57.2] ::

Net gain over 6 weeks of 26 points and 170 ranks — For a 7 year old book

20 June 423. ↓-2 (421) : One Piece vols 1-3 collection – Viz Shonen Jump, Dec 2009 [24.8] ::
27 June 314. ↑109 (423) : One Piece vols 1-3 collection – Viz Shonen Jump, Dec 2009 [38.0] ::
4 July 316. ↓-2 (314) : One Piece vols 1-3 collection – Viz Shonen Jump, Dec 2009 [38.9] ::
11 July 425. ↓-109 (316) : One Piece vols 1-3 collection – Viz Shonen Jump, Dec 2009 [24.9] ::
18 July 436. ↓-11 (425) : One Piece vols 1-3 collection – Viz Shonen Jump, Dec 2009 [24.2] ::
25 July 408. ↑28 (436) : One Piece vols 1-3 collection – Viz Shonen Jump, Dec 2009 [20.1] ::

Net movement here might as well be flat, though there was a spike two weeks before 54 came out. General rule: a new release moves the backlist

Jumping On Points:

20 June 182. ↔0 (182) : One Piece 24 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jan 2010 [71.7] ::
27 June 172. ↑10 (182) : One Piece 24 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jan 2010 [71.4] ::
4 July 203. ↓-31 (172) : One Piece 24 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jan 2010 [62.8] ::
11 July 242. ↓-39 (203) : One Piece 24 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jan 2010 [54.0] ::
18 July 190. ↑52 (242) : One Piece 24 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jan 2010 [71.1] ::
25 July 160. ↑30 (190) : One Piece 24 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jan 2010 [68.7] ::

20 June 385. ↑1 (386) : One Piece 13 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jan 2007 [28.6] ::
27 June 450. ↓-65 (385) : One Piece 13 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jan 2007 [23.5] ::
4 July 345. ↑105 (450) : One Piece 13 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jan 2007 [33.5] ::
11 July 204. ↑141 (345) : One Piece 13 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jan 2007 [63.1] ::
18 July 187. ↑17 (204) : One Piece 13 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jan 2007 [71.6] ::
25 July 264. ↓-77 (187) : One Piece 13 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jan 2007 [38.7] ::

One Piece vol 1 was ranking in the high 200s, the vols.1-3 omnibus in the 300s to 400s, but the speed-up jumping-on point, volume 24—six months after release—is hovering around 200 and the “I just gotta have it” resumption volume after the 4 value collections—vol 13—seems to match the sales of the first omnibus easily, and out-ranking it 4 weeks out of 6.

##

Since the series ranking is a composite score, even a top 10 single volume might not be enough to vault your favourite into the “top 5”.

But I don’t compile rankings to find a top 10 — OK, fine, I post the top 10 lists because that’s what garners hits and I love my readers; I’d love for there to be more of you — but for me the point of the exercise is the midlist and the long tail.

Starting points, jumping in, new releases, and the 30-volume product dump that was Viz’s ‘speed-up’: Lots and lots of books, and all selling online [I should note here: my rankings are based on online sales, discovered by loading up sites and looking at their ‘bestsellers’; there is no secret knowledge, just publicly available info and a massive investment of time].

In actual fact all but 4 volumes of One Piece rank, just not in the top 50 or top 500:

Here’s all of One Piece from 25 July:
12. ↓-3 (9) : One Piece 54 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jul 2010 [251.6] ::
144. ↓-2 (142) : One Piece 53 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jun 2010 [77.5] ::
160. ↑30 (190) : One Piece 24 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jan 2010 [68.7] ::
185. ↓-3 (182) : One Piece 52 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jun 2010 [58.7] ::
191. ↑58 (249) : One Piece 1 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jun 2003 [57.2] ::
194. ↓-11 (183) : One Piece 51 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jun 2010 [56.6] ::
216. ↑6 (222) : One Piece 25 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jan 2010 [50.6] ::
219. ↓-61 (158) : One Piece 50 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jun 2010 [49.9] ::
252. ↑102 (354) : One Piece 44 – Viz Shonen Jump, May 2010 [41.7] ::
264. ↓-77 (187) : One Piece 13 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jan 2007 [38.7] ::
274. ↑110 (384) : One Piece 42 – Viz Shonen Jump, Apr 2010 [36.5] ::
284. ↑162 (446) : One Piece 43 – Viz Shonen Jump, Apr 2010 [34.2] ::
323. ↓-44 (279) : One Piece 11 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jul 2006 [28.6] ::
347. ↓-46 (301) : One Piece 46 – Viz Shonen Jump, May 2010 [25.9] ::
355. ↑9 (364) : One Piece 40 – Viz Shonen Jump, Apr 2010 [25.0] ::
370. ↑75 (445) : One Piece 41 – Viz Shonen Jump, Apr 2010 [24.1] ::
373. ↑85 (458) : One Piece 37 – Viz Shonen Jump, Mar 2010 [23.2] ::
408. ↑28 (436) : One Piece vols 1-3 collection – Viz Shonen Jump, Dec 2009 [20.1] ::
424. ↑56 (480) : One Piece 45 – Viz Shonen Jump, May 2010 [19.1] ::
432. ↑113 (545) : One Piece 23 – Viz Shonen Jump, Dec 2009 [18.2] ::
440. ↑58 (498) : One Piece 48 – Viz Shonen Jump, May 2010 [17.5] ::
452. ↓-51 (401) : One Piece 47 – Viz Shonen Jump, May 2010 [16.3] ::
456. ↓-157 (299) : One Piece 49 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jun 2010 [16.0] ::
502. ↓-10 (492) : One Piece 26 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jan 2010 [12.5] ::
509. ↔0 (509) : One Piece 2 – Viz Shonen Jump, Oct 2003 [12.0] ::
533. ↑14 (547) : One Piece 34 – Viz Shonen Jump, Mar 2010 [10.7] ::
542. ↓-52 (490) : One Piece 27 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jan 2010 [10.1] ::
558. ↑6 (564) : One Piece vols 4-6 collection – Viz Shonen Jump, Jan 2010 [9.6] ::
567. ↓-91 (476) : One Piece 29 – Viz Shonen Jump, Feb 2010 [9.1] ::
595. ↓-148 (447) : One Piece 30 – Viz Shonen Jump, Feb 2010 [7.8] ::
623. ↓-47 (576) : One Piece 35 – Viz Shonen Jump, Mar 2010 [6.4] ::
624. ↑45 (669) : One Piece 28 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jan 2010 [6.4] ::
633. ↓-155 (478) : One Piece 14 – Viz Shonen Jump, Apr 2007 [6.1] ::
635. ↓-66 (569) : One Piece vols 10-12 collection – Viz Shonen Jump, May 2010 [6.0] ::
644. ↓-180 (464) : One Piece vols 7-9 collection – Viz Shonen Jump, Mar 2010 [5.7] ::
679. ↓-34 (645) : One Piece 39 – Viz Shonen Jump, Apr 2010 [4.9] ::
682. ↓-11 (671) : One Piece 3 – Viz Shonen Jump, Mar 2004 [4.8] ::
699. ↑78 (777) : One Piece 36 – Viz Shonen Jump, Mar 2010 [4.4] ::
722. ↓-226 (496) : One Piece 10 – Viz Shonen Jump, Apr 2006 [4.0] ::
723. ↓-82 (641) : One Piece 31 – Viz Shonen Jump, Feb 2010 [4.0] ::
760. ↓-125 (635) : One Piece 38 – Viz Shonen Jump, Mar 2010 [3.5] ::
780. ↑149 (929) : One Piece 5 – Viz Shonen Jump, Sep 2004 [3.3] ::
826. ↓-126 (700) : One Piece 16 – Viz Shonen Jump, Nov 2007 [2.8] ::
884. ↓-102 (782) : One Piece 15 – Viz Shonen Jump, Aug 2007 [2.1] ::
905. ↑71 (976) : One Piece 9 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jan 2006 [1.9] ::
1051. ↓-21 (1030) : One Piece 8 – Viz Shonen Jump, Sep 2005 [0.8] ::
1075. ↓-89 (986) : One Piece 33 – Viz Shonen Jump, Feb 2010 [0.7] ::
1090. ↓-537 (553) : One Piece 32 – Viz Shonen Jump, Feb 2010 [0.6] ::
1104. ↓-385 (719) : One Piece 22 – Viz Shonen Jump, Oct 2009 [0.5] ::
1138. ↓-170 (968) : One Piece 4 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jul 2004 [0.3] ::
1200. ↓-291 (909) : One Piece 21 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jun 2009 [0.2] ::
1247. ↑14 (1261) : One Piece 18 – Viz Shonen Jump, Jun 2008 [0.1] ::
1338. ↑21 (1359) : One Piece 17 – Viz Shonen Jump, Mar 2008 [0.1] ::
1382. ↓-204 (1178) : One Piece 12 – Viz Shonen Jump, Oct 2006 [0.1] ::

“Missing” are volumes 6, 7, 19, & 20 — though these just fall outside my data collection methods, it’s not like no one is buying them.

Your take-away:

• One Piece was a top 5 series, back in June when it had five new volumes and was basking in the tail-end of Viz’s six month long marketing promo. It was in the top 10 right up until last week.
• 54++ volumes still add up: One Piece is a top 25 property and is going to stay there for years to come.
• Fans aren’t obsessively pre-ordering One Piece: they wait for the books to come out. One Piece is popular, but doesn’t have the same hungry fans as say, Hetalia, Berserk, or some of the OEL titles
• You may only read the top 10, but I post a top 500 volumes and top 50 series each week, and I track the weekly movement of 1200+ individual manga.
• I have a lot of data, and a lot of ways to sort the data; I’m just waiting for somebody to pay me for this.
• …but so long as I have to work another job to make the rent, these charts aren’t going to be all they could be. It’s a fun hobby, but ‘hobby’ is where it stays. I’m happy to run a “breakout” chart & analysis like this for one of My Dear Readers, especially one who takes the time to comment [thank you, soysauce] but it takes time.
• you should all be grateful that I like math and have an odd hobby.