Rocket Bomber - article - business - publishing - Gadgets & Numbers - Comics & Apps

Comics on the iPad: sounds great, doesn’t it? I mean, the iPad is a beautiful device, easy to use, comes from Apple so you know it’s cool (and others see the Apple logo on it so they know you’re cool, too), and… um… iPad! Why aren’t you getting this?

There are 6 million of them out there already — well, maybe a few less, but if there aren’t 6 million of them now, then Apple will hit that point really, really soon [source] — and if you’re not paying attention, that seems like a Really Big Number!

My problem with the iPad (indeed, with most platforms) is that no matter how cool it is, it’s still just a small part of the overall market. On top of that, things like the iPad and the Kindle are available only from a single manufacturer — compare to DVD & Blu-ray players, which not only are manufactured by dozens of companies, they cram them into computers, game systems, TV sets, toasters, everywhere.

here, have some numbers:

6 Million
– number of iPads sold.

4 Million
– Kindles, plus or minus: estimated between 2.5 – 4 million [source 1, and 2]

Less than 1 Million
– Nooks. Though I think there are at least a million in their supply chain at the moment at the rate they’re manufacturing them. I’m sure B&N will have a big press release when that hit that magic million number.

Looks good; but compare to

73.5 Million
– iPhones [source]

62 Million
– PlayStation Portables [source]

135 Million
– Nintendo DS units [source]

…and of course, a billion computers. One. Billion. And that’s computers in use, not just built and sold to date. The billionth computer was built and sold back in 2002.

Even if one considers the ‘captive audience’ part of the iPad userbase to be a plus, 6 Million isn’t as big as it looks. compare:

12 Million
– World of Warcraft subscribers. (not units sold, but monthly subscriptions)[source; see also]

16 Million
– Netflix subscribers [source]

30 Million
– Xbox Live subscribers (out of 50 Million XBox 360 units sold, so there are another 20 million potential customers) [source]

41 Million
– PS3s sold. Add in the 62 million PSPs and that’s a potential userbase of 103 million for the PlayStation Network, though there are only 60 Million PSN accounts at the moment [source 1, and 2]

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There are 218 Million HDTVs out there [source]. There are 277 Million DVD players — adjusting for those who own several, that’s an estimated 92 million households with DVD [source]. Blu-ray is already up to 27.5 Million players [source] — and both DVD and Blu-ray require you to buy discs at $5-40 each (heck of a lot more than the cost of an app).

3.7 Million went to Yankees games last year. [source] 2.5 Million people watch college football games every Saturday in the fall, live [source] at massive stadiums across the country; countless millions more watch it on TV — well, OK, someone is counting: 20.2 Million people watched 208 telecasts during the regular season [source] and 131 Million watched the top 20 bowl games just these last 2 weeks [source].

Millions are easy numbers to throw around.

24 Million live in Texas. 37 Million live in California — 16 Million of those just in LA. 19 Million live in “New York”, 8.3 Million of those just inside New York City Limits, and 1.6 Million plus just on a small, 13-mile-long island in the middle of the Hudson River.

The install base for the iPad doesn’t even exceed NYC. Instead of developing an iPad app, you might as well open up a comic shop in the Bronx.

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Of course I’m being both sarcastic and facetious, throwing numbers around just to prove my own straw-man argument about the futility of the iPad as a platform. That, and I like trivia.

But go back to the very first set of numbers: including the iPad, there are about 12 million or so e-readers out there: 12 million out of a US Population of 308 Million. That number could double each year for the next 5 years — true exponential growth — and at that point there would be one e-reader for every 4 TV sets, or one for every three computers — actually one for every six computers because by 2014 there will be a projected two billion computers in use. [1.4 billion tv sets, source, via – and doubling each year for 5 years is 2⁵, 3200% — a total of 384 million ereaders world-wide in 2015.]

If we include tablets (a category that also subsumes the iPad) then maybe, yes, there will be 300 or 400 million “e-readers” — portable devices which can display books — in five years’ time. But we’re wandering a bit far from the initial premise at that point, and just because something can display books, doesn’t mean users will buy ebooks (or even read free ones).

Can you make money from an e-book? Sure. An individual author could likely make enough to live at or around the poverty line, depending on how hard she works to market the book. (Merely producing the ebook isn’t enough, as it just gets lost in the millions of available titles.) Can you make money from digital comics? By themselves? —no. But some webcomickers seem to be doing a fair job selling stuff while giving away the comics for free, and also selling books (physical books, self-published) – typically also while still giving away the comics for free. There are discussions of how to do this, resources for artists, and rare success stories on the internet, if you look [try typing something like “living on webcomics“ into a search engine, for example].

But both relentless author self-promotion and successful (or not) web comics rely on the internet, accessable from one-going-on-two-billion computer screens, your iPad, your smart phone, and even the occasional TV set besides. Using the net increases your potential audience by a factor of hundreds, maybe even a thousand.

Can DC and Marvel make money from an iPad app? Sure. Some small fraction of the 6 or [eventually] 20 or [maybe even] 100 Million iPad owners are comics fans, and some of those have money, and some of them might even be willing to buy comics for the iPad.

And 1% of 1% of 1% of a Million is still a dollar. Small fractions can add up, and some fractions might be bigger than just 1%. But why limit yourself?

What happens if the one company that makes your one platform suddenly goes out of business? This isn’t a risk with a DVD, because many companies make DVD players. This isn’t a risk with a book, as you don’t need a device to read a book at all. (Well, maybe a lamp – or reading glasses.) And I’ll grant that it likely isn’t a risk with Amazon or Apple either, at this point — But why limit yourself?

What if the *brand new thing* in 2012 isn’t an iPad, and isn’t compatible? Sure, you have your established userbase (for as long as they own and use the old devices) but unless you can port things over, your business and app sales just stopped growing and your days are numbered. It would be a relatively easy challenge to overcome, but why limit yourself to just the “now”, and just one platform?

I think we all can see the appeal of digital comics (and by extension, other full-color heavily illustrated books like school texts, cookbooks, travel guides, art books, and ‘how-to’ guides of all types). And the iPad is a great device. The two go together like peanut butter and marshmallow creme — sure, not to everyone’s taste but some folks will swear it’s the best thing between two slices of bread. Someone will come up with a way to make money off of iPad comics, and they might even make a lot of money.

But the company or individual who comes up with an internet-based solution to the digital comics problem is going to make a lot more money, and might even change the publishing industry.