Rocket Bomber - article - business - retail - Bank On It

The first automated teller machine was installed in New York City 50 years ago.

Today, we all know ATMs, use them on at least a weekly basis (maybe more, maybe less) and digital banking has advanced to the point that between direct deposit and debit cards and online bill payments, it is possible to conduct all of one’s personal financial transactions without touching a single piece of paper, let alone paper money. [my water & sewer bill is the last one still mailed to me on paper; thanks to my new landlord, I’ve even been able to transition to paying my rent online]

There are other technologies involved, and a number of connected networks and digital adaptations of old technologies (e-checks, anyone?) and of course, the internet — all of which enable various forms of digital and automated banking.

And yet: there are still banks. In my neighborhood, two new branches opened in just the past year – banks I’d certainly never heard of before so they’re either brand new or represent expansions of out-of-town banks.

You can walk into any bank and guess what: you’ll still see a bank teller. (Fewer than there used to be, sure, but still a person.) Past the main counter, folks still work in bank offices, and if you want to open an account, or get a loan, or purchase CDs (certificates of deposit) you’ll end up talking to one of these bankers: specialists in their field, still ready to help for all the things that can’t yet be done online. Some services and interactions just can’t be online, and likely never will be.

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In 1961, patrons at the City Bank of New York had the option to use an ATM, but apparently so few trusted the machine to make their deposit (cash withdrawals weren’t available) the device was removed 6 months later.

Digital banking in all of its glory took time.

Digital publishing will also take time, and I think the analogy to banking is apt: even when most things are digital, some will completely forgo digital by choice while most of us will still revert to paper for some options, and will still own at least a few things on paper because of convenience or personal preference, and that paper as a whole will be impossible to get rid of.

After all, you still have cash in your wallet, right? (Or if you don’t: you see a lack of cash as a problem to be addressed, and not a goal to be working toward.)

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Project Gutenberg was founded 40 years ago— no, seriously, and we have sources besides wikipedia to back that up. See also: www.gutenberg.org/wiki/Gutenberg:About

So: 40 years. And digital books had a false start 11 years ago, as well, with a major push by Stephen King and his digital-only short story, “Riding the Bullet”, which was downloaded a half a million times soon after release — over dial-up! this was 2000 — and which made a splash even in the print media: I love this reaction in the New York Times [25 March, 2000] which also includes this choice bit quoting Microsoft:

“In lavish ads heralding its new ‘book-like’ device, Microsoft Reader, it touts ‘the best estimates of Microsoft researchers and developers’ about the post-print future: E-books will start outselling printed books in 2009; newspapers will abandon paper editions in 2018; Webster’s will alter its first definition of ‘book’ to refer to writing read on a screen by 2020.”

Stephen King made the cover of Time that same week [dated 27 March, 2000] though to their credit, the cover story in that issue predicted how “amateur” and user-generated content would “win”, and make the internet what it is today.

Sony introduced their first ereader in 2004 — not THE first ereader, but a milestone. In 2005, Amazon bought their way into the market, with their own device to follow in 2007. [as near as I can determine, the first dedicated e-reader devices were the SoftBook and Rocket eBook — the device was known as an eBook, not the files — both of which came out in 1998. Back in ’98, an ereader weighed 3 pounds, had a battery life of about 5 hours and used a black-and-white LCD screen.] So the devices are between 7 and 14 years old, depending on how one would care to count it — one could even make the argument that “ereaders” in the collective consciousness and as a “mass market” device are only a year old, as prior to 21 June, 2010 no device (that anyone had heard of, anyway) sold for less than $250.

[We’re still waiting for the sub-$100 unit. There’s your e-book revolution, right there, and when a decent sub-$100 dedicated ereader comes out—if it does—then I’ll start worrying about the future of bookstores]

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Publishers are among the most conservative and change-averse companies out there, quite similar to banks in that regard. But publishers are also among the most responsive to their customers—their readers—and relatively quick to respond to trends.

The shift to ebooks came as a result of customer acceptance, not because of some inherent superiority of the digital format — if digital books really were better, they would have taken off in 2000, not 2010.

The two business are not directly comparable, but even after decades of moving toward automation and taking both the paper and the people out of banking, one can still be employed as a bank teller (indeed, the banks are still hiring) and the bank branches are still open. Now, one could argue that the physical branches are only part of the overall business, and that banks make their money elsewhere, and in fact the “store front” is subsidized by all this other business & the profits made with and by computers in digital markets and transactions.

Sure. Fair enough.

And this differs from, say, a Barnes & Noble, Inc. in, say, 2021 how exactly? There may be fewer branches, and fewer booksellers in 10 years time, and the store front may be subsidized by the digital business, and most folks would rather use the website or buy direct off of a device or whatever.

In 2021 we may have all traded in our debit cards for smart phones using NFC, and maybe folks under 30 won’t know what a check or a check book is, let alone still use them, and maybe, finally, after six decades the banks will finally begin to close branches because we all use the website & ATMs.

Could happen. I doubt it, but could happen. I personally think that as long as cash is an option, I’ll still have a corner bank with a bored teller behind the counter, thankful to see an actual customer and willing to spend extra time with me because *I* took the extra time to do things in person, and helping me is their job: a role the bank is willing to subsidize because 15 minutes of actual human contact can buy years-worth of loyalty and justifies (in the customers’ minds) all the other transactions that take place online and through devices.

Similarly, a smart company will still have booksellers [fewer of us, but…] and will still run a storefront with actual books [likely fewer of these, too, sadly, but…] and if a customer chooses, they can still come into a bookstore and chat with a bookseller and get recommendations and browse and discover books in a way that is impossible to do online.

…because 15 minutes of actual human contact can buy years-worth of loyalty and justifies (in the customers’ minds) all the other transactions that take place online and through devices. and see also: Fill the Showroom, Sales Will Follow at PublishersWeekly.com

In ten years time, I will still be a bookseller. Hell, I’ll likely still be working in the same damn branch of the same damn store, the one I started at more than 10 years ago.

Bank on it.